> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.hvurs.cc/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Economy Chances

> Published base probabilities for selected Caesar economy activities.

These are the configured base probabilities. Items and perks can change some outcomes; the command response or `/item` can show item-specific details.

## Crime success

| Crime | Base success |
| - | -: |
| Shoplifting | 70% |
| Pickpocketing | 60% |
| Fake tickets | 55% |
| Tax fraud | 50% |
| Smuggling | 45% |
| Car theft | 40% |
| Jewellery store | 35% |
| Bank robbery | 25% |

Fenrir's Fang and active Mead each add 10 percentage points to success, up to a 95% cap. A failed smuggling, car theft, jewellery store, or bank robbery can also be fatal; the conditional death chance is 14%, 17%, 20%, or 30%, respectively. Those death rolls happen only after the crime fails.

## Expedition outcomes

Each successful expedition makes the listed number of item rolls. The per-roll chance is independent of which item is selected from that tier's loot table.

| Expedition | Disaster chance | Item chance per roll | Rolls | Base chance of at least one item |
| - | -: | -: | -: | -: |
| Coastal Raid | 15% | 40% | 1 | 34% |
| Longship Voyage | 20% | 60% | 2 | 67.2% |
| Saga to Distant Lands | 25% | 80% | 3 | 74.4% |

The final column is calculated as `(1 - disaster chance) x (1 - (1 - item chance)^rolls)`. Mjolnir halves the disaster chance, and Dragon Figurehead adds an item roll, so a member's actual odds may differ.

## Work item drops

The chance of receiving any job item on a shift varies by job:

| Job | Chance per shift |
| - | -: |
| Dishwasher | 5% |
| Cashier | 5% |
| Delivery Driver | 6% |
| Fisherman | 30% |
| Mechanic | 5% |
| Software Developer | 3% |
| Bank Manager | 4% |
| CEO | 4% |

## Other risks

| Activity | Base risk |
| - | -: |
| Fishing | 2% death chance per cast; after surviving, a 2% fishing-pole break roll |
| Digging | 2% death chance per dig |
| Hunting | 2.5% death chance; if you survive, a 4% injury roll |

Some items prevent or modify these outcomes. For example, a Halibut prevents fishing-pole breaks, a Bear Pelt prevents hunting injuries, and a Camo Cloak prevents hunting accidents. These figures are base values and may change with active perks.


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